¹⻪ -- EconomicsĶ
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 : Alchian (~~Hayek֮), : economics
  : һչ
վ: ¹⻪վ (Tue Aug 22 10:10:00 2000) , վż


һչ
 Ө ԺڶооԱδѧóѧ˶ʿ
 ŷ ԺڶооԱ¹÷ѧѧʿ
 Ͽ ԺڶооԱĪѧʿѡ
 ٳ ԺڶооԱʢٴѧѧʿ
   չ
    1999꺫ڲݲҵǿԼҪгľó£
벻ÿٳɳ1999ϰ꣬ʵGDPɳ7.3%
ĳɳʸĸߴ12.3%EIUԤ1999ȫʵGDPɳ8
.5%ܹ֮֮죬Թ鹦㣺һ
ȡɵĻߣĿǰάʷĵ͵6%ռ
GDP5%ڶĳڳɳ٣Ͷ̼ĸ
    1999꺫øŲ֮죬˵۾м
оԤϵĵߺóɳ֮ԤֵȻ1999
꺫óɳĺã2000֮óɳֽ޷ά˸֮ˮ׼һ
Ԥ⽫6%ڡδԽάֿɵĻҼߣʹܹɳ
δû֮ͨѹ£ԤʲߣȻά
ֳԤ㣬Ԥ2000ʱԽռGDP3~5%
    2000ʱ𲽻ָ˽ͶԲ磬Щţ뵼
塢ͨѶѶҺתͶʻгɳЩܹʣɴڣ
ʯͶʳɳףⲻʹòűķչ
ͶʳɳཫܵơΩ2000꺫ĳڳɳʽᳬó׵ĳɳ
ʣҳеƣͨѶѶƷĳڱߡ
ڹڲƷнںƫߵ£ҲпٳɳĿܣ
óӯཫС119ԪӯҲֻʣ45Ԫ
    2000꺫ͨԽάֵˮ׼ҪΪƽȣͨͲ
·Ҳͨ͵ѹEIUԤ⣬2000ʱ
2.7%ڿԽܵķΧڡڻֵĿܣΪ
ǿ루ͶʼֱͶʣϾԽάӯľ档һЩ
ɸЧӦҵΣΣĸ뿪ŵ߶𽥽ʹû
ʸߵơEIUԤ⣬2000꺫ԪԪƽʽά11751ˮ
׼ϡ
   ˹ŷչ
    ŷǸתоÿչгΪ罫1990鼰ľô˥
Ʋۣɸĸת켤ҵ𵴺ȡþĳ
ҾܸĸļЧãԭɳĶ㣬вڳ
ֻǰһϵеͻԵڡ֣ʹЭŷܵ
ڴ󲿷־þٶ˥ˣ1997궫ǵĽΣ˹ͨ
Σ1999µİͶսعҺ͵˳̶Ȳһƻ
   1999궫ŷ򾭼õĻع
    ŷתо壨λĿּǣ28λ;
õͬΪԪΪչˮƽͬгʻÿƽ
ΪȵĻ1999չĸߵλŷ޵غŷ
ЭͷǶЭ֣ǡͶɼЭ߼
    簴Ҫ徭ָпȽϣ£11999ά
Ĺ4.0%3.15%ɳǣ0.5%άǣ1.5%
˹1.8%ǣ6.0%ͼ˹2.5%2ó
ĹΪݿˡǣ3֧ӯ߶ʣ
˹һֻ˹óӯΪھ˥ˣ½½Ľ

    ⣬۰άȣ޵غŷǱŵ
ϸIMFڼɵĹңάǡ𡢻ɳǶܱ
̶ֽʵĻұֵʮְʴˣ벨ݿ
ΪȽתо塣ֵעǣĻҽڱƾ
ȵĸı䣬籣ǵΪ1996/97ԽΣ֣ù1997
ʼЧ͢ɳǣԼտˣίԱᡱϿеĹг
ͬʱLevԺڽ񣬸ùCPIʾ6%¡
   ˹ǰ
    ĳǶȿ19988¬ɵĶ˹ΣΪǰ˶Σ
뷭棻һͻԵѶԸùܱ߹ɵĸδ

    ˹ľ˸׶θĸʹȻӲڡ˰
˽лԼʵ漰óţ۾͹˶棬ǧٿף
ƣĽڷ籩ǶԾöܳ˥˵Ķ˹һεػ
19988º󣬶˹ΣծΣšʽ뼷ҷ
нϵ˹Σʽ̬ڶǽڷ籩
ȻĹۣʹԣоãʳˣԭϼ۸䣬ټ

    ΣĺЧӦɴӻ濴I¬۴
ֵԭ6.25¬1Ԫ¸19%ĸ䣬Ŀǰ24.8¬1Ԫ
˹ڲƷļ۸ֱͶʵĲҵ򱾵زɹ
Ӫģڴҵн϶ķչ᣻II1999ǰҵֵ
ʴ3.9%GDP»ٶȼ׼Ϊ-3%֮1998ͬڵ-7.8%иĽó
΢ӣڴ٣ʹþӯռGDP֮6.7%
ó
    Σ˹ڵľȻζ񻯣1998¬н
вԭ֮Ƶһ̣ʾ֯δʱԮԽȼüֱ֮1999
°ͶսգIMFȴĪ˹ƴ45ԪĽЭ飻
Ϊ׵ңͼԮֹԼ˹ĲԣʵȻ
ҡݽһʮ˹ؽ뷢չԵαƣ
ɥʧ˶ľþȨĺ֢ڡ
   δչ
    ⣬ŷתоã2000ǰӦ1999ʣڶ˹
ǽڷ籩Ӱ𽥵£˥˷ȽϴĹҿֹȣԭȸĸ
ԳɹչгûĹңӦɻָɳȻڷ籩Ъڣ
ŷЭԱͬвΣĺ֢ܲɷ֣
棬⼴;֧˫ֵĶ񻯣һծ
ģʸߡծнڷԼƸĸﻺü
Ϊڵĸ
    ͸УڶתоʷԡṹԵĻ״δ
ѽΪ硱׼Աǵļ˹ĲԼ
֯ڵľԮעʢƽļ˹ϻڹʽ۵
ս𲨼ٺͰǣǹṩԮ侭
Ʋĸﲽͣڳ˥˲гѹڿĿǰ
ڿ֧ѹڣԼȡʩά־ð
    ֳԶԱȵĲ޵غŷңѼOECDĽݿˣ1995
1995Ͳ1996ڽڻָԪЩҲͬ
ŷ˵άǡ˹已ǣѳΪŷ˶ȿǵĶ󣬲ݿ벨
˵ϳɱߣĿǰѲԣǰɳǡԼЭԼ
˹йǺͱǣ̵ĿѴΪߡ
   ĴǾչ
    1999Ĵǿľñ֣ҪڹڼҼѺҵͶ֧š
1999֧٣ʾѳɳתҵͶʷ
1999ͳƾ֣ABS˽ʱ֧飨CAPEX Surveyָ
1999-2000Ͷʽ1998-199920%ͶҪҵǿҵͷ
סլšԤ1999ͶʽϿ½֮һABSָҵͶʽԭ
ΪӦǧ⣬ڼ豸ͶʿܼΣҵͶʼԭ
Ʒúг۸йءңƥ˹̼ɵ
˽Ͷʡھóɳǿͨƽȣʹ޵ʧҵ1998
ߵ͡ݰͳƾµϣڵʧҵѴ8͵㡣
    ߷棬1999ڶѺͰЭ飬ȡԺ֧
10%˰ʵGSTGoods and Services TaxGSTȡе
˰ݵط˰ȻִGSTɵòԻʳGST
Իȡ֧֣˵һɾ͡ݰĲ
ԤָȽĲ֧гĵĹؼڡӯڱֵˮ
׼͸ƾʳ֡1998-99ȵĲӯģƿɴ31װԪEIU
ӯռGDPعƿɴﵽ0.7%2000ɴ0.9%ߵĿڳֵͨ
ˮ׼199812¼䣬½4.75%ʹҵʼ
ˮ׼Ϊ30ˮ׼Ͷгвǿ޴ǰӦ
ϢĿռ䡣
    ԣĴǵľóɳǿĹ֧ߡȻĳЩ֤
ָָת󣬵֧ˮ׼ȻڳԤơ⣬
ڹţȶĹã͹Ʊ÷ӳ֧ɳƿά
һʱա2000ʩеGSTӰ쾭õش۷档ڲ
߻߾ǱȽ⣬˿ֲ̼費㡣
1999ʵGDPɳʿɴ3.8%19984.9%2000½3.7%
EIUԤڵ3.4%
   ޾չ
    󲿷޹1998°Ծ˾óɳ»棬˽
֮Լڴʼ۸֮⣬ڰľùģԼ
翪йҵ֮һټϰ壨θ͢缰
磩еó뾺ϵʰ1999ľ˥ˣ޿ɱسŴ
һ򡣸ݹʻһIMF֮㣬޾1999꽫µ0.5ٷֵ
У޹1999־óɹĹ³ī硣Ԫ
2000꣬еľԽǿīǴ
Ϊ쵼ɳ֮ҡ
    ʵϣδչ󲿷ȡ֮չǾ֮档
ִвĸʧ֮ǱڿԣΪǴһδչ֮вڣ
⣬ױĿǰȫ֮һķо֮⡣ڶ϶
ھѮΪȫһв׵ծȯ֮ҡ϶ί
Ȼϲܵ÷չ֮Ӱ죬ͼ֮ƣѹ
⣬͢׶֮ͬ⣬޷Э飬ҲΪһö
֮ը⣬չԪ2000꣬мغδ
÷չ֮Ҫ档һǷһԼóɳǷ
Σʼ۸Ƿ񽫳
    ֱĿǰΪֹ֮㡣ܷͨ
죬ʹݽƶ֮ĸԺϷһԸƲԼ徭Զ
ҪУ֮͢ó׹Կ˵Ϊߡˣ
ֵµ˥ˣ԰⾭òش֮˺1998°ʴ
ھīڷ籩󾭼ǿİ˼
Ӱ졣Դһµսѵǣһ亴
ҹƼ֮ᶨġ֮óԣ𰢸͢
Ŀǰ֮һǳ֮ʱ Ǻܿԭ
֮˥˽ø㣻Ҫһǣֱ2000κش
ܻظǰĸ߳ɳģʽ
    ޣʹԪԵʣ޷ʹ֮ߡ
ˣȫ򾭼1999߻ƱӰ쵽ԷҵΪ֮͹áչ2000
꣬޼ȫ򾭼ýŽǿ֮ɳʰ͹ҲԤչжȸ
˹ȫ߻䴫ͳڲҵܵռܳԼ
18%гθм֮ݣӢض֮ڱ൱ã
ܳԽǰ֮Ӱ졣ϣпܳԽǰ֮Ӱ졣
1998ʮ±Ϯ֢֮꾭óɳʮޣ2000꽫Ԥн
Ϊǿ֮һ1998ܱǿ֮궼˹ָ֮ص
ڳڷչƻϣЩƻܻڹʼ֮Ԯ
ҵԼ·Ȼʩ֮˽лϡ
    󾭼ϵڹծȨֺ֧֯ƽ£1999
꼰2000꾭óɳԿɴﵽ3.7~4.2%֮ˮ׼֮ҵС߶࣬Ԥ
ڽԼ⾭ò֮£1999ﵽԼ1.9%֮ɳʣԤ20
00꽫ЩΨһӢϵұ˹1998ѡռϯλ
֮侭óɳ1999Լɴ1.5%2000ת´ﵽ
3%ɳ


--
                Alchian ---- Hayek֮                     

 Դ:¹⻪վ bbs.fudan.edu.cn[FROM: 10.64.11.48]

 

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