¹⻪ -- EconomicsĶ
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 : Alchian (~~Hayek֮), : economics
  : һչ
վ: ¹⻪վ (Tue Aug 22 10:07:33 2000) , վż

һչ
  ԺڶооԱ ˶ѧѧʿ
 л ԺڶооԱ ʢٴѧѧʿѡ
  ԺڶооԱ ̨ѧѧʿ
 Ĵ ԺڶооԱ Լս˹ѧѧʿ
 ľ ԺڶооԱ ձ絾ѧѧʿ
   Ǿչ
    ڷ籩֮1998˥ˣʵGDPɳ7.5%徭
Ʒǳֹۡ1999һԳֵ֮ΣʵGDP1998ͬ
˥1.3%Եڶ徭𽥿ʼתʵGDPɳʸߴ4.1%
ѵһɳ֮Ӱ弾øɳ֮1999
ñ֮ǿ˾ȡڵʵGDPɳʸߴ8.1%ɳʼǵ
2ڵĸ߳ɳĿǰ̶֮ѻظڷ籩ǰ֮
ˮ׼ȫڷ籩֮Ӱ̶֮Ƚںͬʱڵļ֮
ɿá
    1999Եڶ֮ˣҪɳ֮ҵ֮
ɳҵ֮ʵʲɳڵڶߴ10.4%֮ɳȣߴ19.5%
ʾø֮ǿҵ֮1999˸֮ɳҪ
羰ôԼھ˫֮ʹ£ҵ
弾֮˥ˣɳũҵҵţ֮ơ
    ڶó׷棬1998ͣͣ˥ˡ1999ܵ羭
ñȶھóܼ֮1999ǰܳΪ2.30
6ң1998ͬ2.108ңɳ9.4%ڽڷ棬ڹھø
˶Թԭϼм֮Խ1999ϰ֮ɳ1999
һ˽ֵΪ537.0ңڶΪ597.4ңΪ649
ңʾھת֮£ѿʼ
    ڹ棬ʱγڵɳߴ13.7%ڵڶɳ8%
֮ͬѷ棬֮ӡۺ϶ԣ
1999ƽ⣬óת硢ǿͶ磻ͬʱ
ע1999ڶ𽥼£ӣʾʽѻҹ
ָġͬʱĿǰԳȡ֮ߣʳߵͣ
֮ͨѹھ֮ɳ
    1999°곬Ԥڵı֣Զ2000֮ձ鱧ֹ۵
̬ȡʸҪԤ1999ʼδ֮óɳһ
Ĺȥұ۵ԤڣWEFAԤ2000óɳΪ3.9%1999Ԥ
֮3.8%Ըߣͬʱδֹۣ20012002GDPɳԤֱΪ5.6%
6.3%
   ɱչ
    ڷ籩ɱĸ뿪ź󣬹ʽ1999ֻ
󣬸ָҲʾƺ׷
    ɼָ1998ɼ۵ȵףڹʽ޵Ӱ£11·ݹ
1996ȣԭȵ63%ԪҲ1998ȵף11µ׻
40.935һԪ1996ȣСԭ64%1998
ǰﵽߵ㣬ƹͶͳʱѹǲɵߣ19
99ǰ10·ɱ25.4%Ϊ10.69%ˮ׼ڶЭԽϸߡ
1999ԵĸƣԴڲȶ׶Ρ
    1999ǰGDPҵṹũҵڰļ˥ˣֱɸ
2.9%11.1%5.6%ҵֳתü󣬵һֱ˥2.2%0.7%
0.2%ĳɳǰ˥0.8%ˮ˹ҵȻά1.2%ĳɳʣʯ
ҵ1998ļָɳ1999ǰ15.6%14.1%13.3%ٶ˥ˣ
ԭũҵת̽˿ڣвתشũҵҵȻֱ˥6.0%5.
3%5.9%ҪǾòʹ佨豸ҲͶԽ뷿
ݴҵı1998ڶΪɳ˥1999һ
ڶ0.9%2.2%ĳɳҵвҵбõģܳɳʽ
Ϊͣǰ3.0%4.0%4.4%ĳɳ䡢óסڡ
ѣֻзزֲѡ
    1999ǰëGDPƼ۵ĳɳΪ2.6%ɳʷֱ
Ϊ1.2%3.6%3.1%GDPɽṹ跽棬˽ѳɳΪ2.6%
ɳʷֱΪ2.5%2.6%2.6%ѳɳΪ5.8%ɳʷֱΪ7.6%6.
2%3.7%ͶʳɳΪ-3.5%ɳʷֱΪ-9.7%6.2%-5.3%跽
ڳɳΪ-2.5%ɳʷֱΪ-11.4%2.1%2 .1%ڳɳΪ-6.1%
ɳʷֱΪ-17.9%0.4%0.2%ԪƼ۵ĳڳɳΪ17.0%ڳɳ
Ϊ1.3%GDPɳҪԳ˽ѵĳɳ
    WEFAԤ1999ƹ˽ѳɳʷֱΪ1.3%-3.0%ѳɳʻ
3.0%Ϊ0.8%Ͷʳɳ豸ԵͶʷԸ֮£ή8.6%
ɳ1998-0.2%Ϊ-1.2%޽ڷ籩Ӱ죬
Ԥڳɳʻ-10.4%Ƴ-2.4%ڳӴ½ڳɳҲ-11.4
%Ƴ-7.6%ڹ󶼻֮£ԤGDPɳҲ-0.5%Ϊ3.2%
չ2000ɱ徭ãڹɳ£˹ͳϣ͸
ȿʽҵԴҵ͹ҵƹãԤ2000侭óɳ
ʻ19993.2%Ϊ4.7%
   ӡᾭչ
    ӡͳƾͳƣ1998ӡʵGDP1997˥13.2%
1999Ԥɳ0.12%
    1999ʵGDP𼾳ɳҪԴѣ1999ȫԤ
ɳ1.55%Ԥɳ8.40%ͶڲȻ1998
4˥ƣرǽڷ档1999ʵʹ̶Ͷ˥21.24%
˥32.50%˥45.31%Եģڽڷ籩ص1998꣬ʵ
̶ͶʹȻ˥35.5%ɳ11.2%Ҳ΢˥5.3%
ʵͶ֧˥ˣСȻΪӡҵծͽϵ
δֹͣſǷȱʽת¡Ȼҵծͽϵ
Ҳڷչ1999ʵʽڴ˥ȣϺܿǻʼ
仯һͳ
    ӹ1999˽ڱҵͨѶ۲ù
ҵ⣬ҵ΢ɳڱҵֵɳ8.58%ϵ
ӳϵرǹӪв֣ȻֻʵС
    2000ӡ徭չأIMF1999924շWorld Econom
ic OutlookOctober1999УƲ1999ӡʵGDPǰһ˥0.8%20
00ɳ2.6%Եأ1999420շWorld Economic OutlookInt
erim ReportУIMFƲ1999ӡʵGDPǰһ˥4%2000ɳ2
.5%ǰεԤ⣬1999ʵGDP˵Ȼܴ󣬵2000Ԥȴ
ͬǰIMFƲ⣬ܿѾ19996ӡѡ˳ɵӰ
죬7-8¼䷢İгźͶ¼徭õӰ죬ܻܿ
뿼ӡѾ׼ӦòҪӰ
Ȼгĳδ䶨ķչֵע⡣
    һֵע̬չǣӡἫͼطķ˶
루AcehﰲţIrian JayaطӡȻԴ
ʡݡɹӡܴܿӴ˲塣ǵķ˶ʲô
ΰţվӡľǰмҪӰ졣
ȷظɵģĿǰӡиеͳ͸ͳһ
ȫϹϣ£һȫƣտŵŮA blind seer points 
the wayThe Economist30th Oct. 1999
   ¼¾չ
    1999ǶڽҾý𽥻ָȶ
¼¹ھþںת¼1998ļָ
ɳ1999һת0.6%΢ɳڶʵGDPɳ
6.7%ڵڶõ֣ٶȴʹ¼1999ȫ꾭
óɸԤֵƽ0~2%ϵΪ4~5%ĳɳȡչ2000꣬
¼Ԥ侭óɳȽɴ4.5%6.5%֮䡣
    ۲¼¾óɳļĸɳ󣬵ڶ
6.8%9.4%ɳҪȫԵӲƷ뻯ƷӴ£
óϷ1998¹óױһֱ൱ٻ1999ڶ
óױ൱ͻڵڶĳɳֱ7.1%7.9%һ
棬һһ˥7.7%ڵڶҲֱɳ6.0%13.4%
ĳɳҪԲҵ磬ԼҵпĽ⣬
ĸɳҲڻøƣ֧ڵڶɳ5.1%8.3%
Ԥ£һȥĸɳ5.8%9.1%ɳ
ʱ֧ڻ豸豸ͶӴ£ɵһ˥16.5%תʵ
΢ɳ1.7%
    ȽֵӵǣҵŴӵһ6.7%ɳڶٴ14
.5%16.7%ǿɳҵŵĸ߳ɳҪǵӲҵ뻯ѧҵĳɳƶ
Ӳҵ棬ж绰г£ѶĲȫг
ӣҲ̼뵼ĳɳ⣬򾭼øҲ·
ڶ¼µӲҵĳɳߴ23%һ棬¼µĻѧҵڵڶ
ʱٶȻ38%ĸ߳ɳҪҽҩƷŷ޴ġ
⣬¹깤豸ļУʯҵĲҲ֮ӣӻ
ѧƷĲҲҵĸ߳ɳӡ
    ⣬ڶó׷棬1999ڶ¼¶óŤת˵һ0.94%˥
˾棬ֱ8%10%ĸ߳ɳ199919·ݺϼƵĶó׳2.9%С
ɳ1998°˥-12.4%ôĸơ1999ڶó
ױ֣ɹ鹦ȫԵӲƷӣԼ޸õ
ڵǿͬʱԲƷڵĳɳгĳɳڲƷڷ棬ռ
ʯ͹ڲƷڱ69%ĵӲƷڣϰ0.3%¼ڵĳ
ڲƷһŵܾҡ۸ƣӰ죬ϰڻ൱ƣڳг
棬ŷˡۡձǵȣ¼Ҫó׶ֹĳڣڵ
ʱѻơ⣬ڽڷ棬ʯͲƷ֮ڣ봬
ڵڶɳ11%Ҫǻ·뵼ж绰ӡˢ·
ýƷĽӣŵ¼ӰȲƷĽȴ½ơ
¼óչԤ1999¼¶ó׿ﵽ4~6%ĳɳԤ
-5~-7%ɳֵ
   ̩չ
    1999̩ܼƸߴ1300̩ľþ˷Լ
˳ͨƲ롶̷ȶؼ£̩
þĸʻ1999ڶ̩ڰҵ
Ͷʵȸ徭ָƣ򾭼þת
̩ó״ӵڶ࿪ʼɳơˣڹԼ
ͬĹ£Ŀǰ̩ԼҪԤIMF̩δ÷չ
ǰ൱ֹ۵ĿΪ̩1999ȫGDPɳȽɴ3%4%֮䣬Զ
ԭ1%ľóɳĿꡣ
̩ҾᷢչίԱNESDB̩ⷢGDPļɳʣ1997
ڶ7˥˾1999һڿʼֱתɳ0
.8%3.5%ũҵӰ죬ڶֵɳ1.3%Ȼڵһ3.8%
ֵɳʣũҵŲֵ1998ļĴ˥7.2%ת1999һ
ĳɳ0.4%3.7%ڷũҵУҵڵһֵ
ɳ5.4%7.7%ĿʯҵùݲҵԼִͨҵ
ţ1999һĲֵԳɳƣˮ˹ӦҵӪҵ
ԼڷҵȲţ1999һֵԳ˥˾棬˥˷
ѽ1998ļֵ˥˷Ȼ1999һ̩ҵ
Ĳֵɳ۲졣
    ̩1999꾭þƺ𲽳ȫԷչ
    չ2000̩óɳƣм19993µԴٽ֧ΪҪĿ
֮˰ӹ֧Ⱦþ˷̩19998Ѯ
ٽͶʵ´ʩʱ豸ԭϽڹ˰ȡڸ
˰衢ſ̶ʲ۾̯ʡøҵͶСҵͶ
˷زСҵȴʩЩǾ൱㷺´ʩ
Ч̩ҵӪɱЭҵʱؽڶ⾺
ٽҵͶʡˣδߴʩ𽥷ӾЧ֮£Ԥ
̩2000꾭Խά3%4%ĳɳȡ

--
                Alchian ---- Hayek֮                     

 Դ:¹⻪վ bbs.fudan.edu.cn[FROM: 10.64.11.48]

 

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