¹⻪ -- EconomicsĶ
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 : Alchian (~~Hayek֮), : economics
  : ŷ徭չ 
վ: ¹⻪վ (Tue Aug 22 10:05:10 2000) , վż

ŷ徭չ
 ź ԺڶооԱ Ӣ±ѧʿ
  ԺڶооԱ ˹ѧѧʿ
 Ĵ ԺڶооԱ Լս˹ѧѧʿ
    Ӣչ
    ܵԾü޽ڷ籩Ӱ죬Ӣľþ1998°֮һ
ʱ䣬ڵԵ״̬1999Ժķչȴʾ֮ǰľԣ
ֻǼԾ˥ˡӢشĿǰΪԡʵϣ1999ڶӢ
øļѸ֡ڷز۸ƫصĴ£Ӣ
ǿһ淿ز۸ƸЧ͸Ѻ̼ѡ
һ棬Լͥ;òƺƷԣӢƷ۶1999
ɳ2.6%֧ҿɳɳ4%ټͶ֧
ҲţʹΪӢøҪ
    Ͳűزг磬Ӫҵڷȵķչʵϣ
һ˥УΪӢóɳҪķҵδܵԵĳȫ
ɳԤƿɴ2.6%ԭڵ״̬ҵڡת£
ڵ1%Ҹڷҵ0.9%һ棬ǿʹ
ҵʼܻݣһ棬еĹʾþҲ̼Ӣĳڡͻ
֣ټϹʾҲ磬󾭼оϵ߶Ӣóɳ
ԤֵӢԤ1999ľóɳʽɴ1.75%ԭ1%~1.5%Ԥ
ֵ
    ң徭òԣӢ1999ıҲȦɵ㡣ܷҵ
ҵƴȤҵ۸ҵصҪ۲Ʒ۸
ȴͻأӢͨѿ2.5%ĹٷĿڡȻڷزг
൱磬ӢͨԲҵġˣϢѹ
ڣӢб1999ʣԭ5%ĵ͵㣬ߵ5.
5%⣬Ӣʧҵʽһ·ߵͣѵ6%ˮ׼1997괺1.5%
Ʒڶԣ1999Ϊת۵㣬ҵڵɳ8%20
¼¼Ը߿ƼӲƷڱΪɫǿҲ̼
˽ڣˣȫƷó볬нһ֮ݡ
    չµȣڡؾӢýһš͹ضԣ
˷زгҵĺþԲ⣬Ӣ߶ԳھóɳƵ
Ԥڣԭȵ2.25%Ϊ2.5 %˽󹫹֧ĹģңԤڳ̵
ʧҵҲԽһ̼ѡ徭õȶҲڴͶʡ
ʻԣľͶǹҵĿٸ̼ʾþ
ټΪӢҪгŷ½ԤҲԾش
    ۺЩڡӢ2000ľñֽ1999ѣӢ
Ԥɳʿܽ2.5%3%֮䣬߹ڳڳɳơ裬Ҳ
ܼǵѹˣӢпܱȽһԿͨ
һ1999رӢܻٶֵŷԪ⽫Ӱ
ӢĶóײţʹֵٶۣӢ2000ľóɳ
ΪóΪ
    չ
    1999һóɳʽǰڳɳ0.4%תһΪ
֮ԼҪ޷ԣԼŷԪ֮Ͷ
ҷ֮˽Ȼάֶʹþóɳʱеϵˮ׼
ڳַ˽ѳɳڶóɳ0.6%ʹϰ
ʵʾóɳ2.1%1999°꣬˽ѣ
ҵͶʼڣԳɳľ档˽ѹҵƷ֮ɳȴ1.8%
ڳɳҲи˷ҵתҵͶҲڹڡת
ǿԤ¼Ų
    ԣչ2000ȫ֮ӦֹۿڣڸԳľ
£ʵʾóɳʿɴ2.6%-2.7%1999ָã1999ԤΪ2.4%
ŷԪҲǱƵĹҡУǿƶóɳ
Ҫڵʵļ£˽ѼҵͶʵĳɳƶ⣬
ߵǿʵõӵȽʹѳɳά2.5%ĸ߳ɳʡ
ҵͶʷ棬˵⣬ڲϽ˰ƵĸĸԷҵܲ
Ͷ⣬ҵ֮ͶҲָʹ̶Ͷʷ֮ɳԤ4.
2%ҡڹ棬ڳɸԤ2000꿪ʼԣ
гĸʹ÷̽٣ڳɳʹƿɴ4.9%
    ⣬Ŭɾḣ֧ʹԤֵĸƻ൱֮
ЧռGDPıϵ½1997ıΪ3%1998½2.7%1
999׿½2.3%2000ԤΪ1.7%-2.0%縣֧˸
ʧҵʵߣֽԤ֧ԷʵΪһսڻ߷棬
ڷΪŷԪ֮һԱŷм199910»
M3ɳ6.1%߹ŷ֮ζֵ114սϵ0.5%
ŷʵδڸǽάڼˮ׼Ԥ2000
ŷлнһ֮ٶŷԪĻۣŷ޾ĺת1999
10ϰŷԪǿ1ŷԪ1.0865Ԫص澭
ֹʹԪԵǿơԪҲϳʷµͣĿǰ1ŷԪ1
ԪǻԻδŷԪ֮ƣԤ2000ŷԪھñֿȽ
ĳɸǣŷԪλӦкĳɳռ䡣
    ¹չ
    ŷԪң¹1999ϰľñԵơϰ
¹ʵʾóɳΪ1.25%ʾƶ侭óɳ֮Ӳ㡣˽
ܵʵ֮Դڳɳľ棬ϰɳʴ2%ɳм
ڹ̶豸ͶʲţΪ1998°ΪͶڣ֮£1999ϰ
ҵ֮ͶԸ൱ĮڽͶʲֳ3%ĳɳʣǽ״
ɳ󡣳ڳɳĲΪǾóɳ޷Ҫԭ򡣳
ڶʼƣԷŷ˹ҵĳڽҵ˥˺ɳ
6.3%1999ϰ¹ܳڽͬڳɳʽ2%ȥĳڱ
δ⡣1999°꣬¹ñֽϰдĺתҪܵ
תǿļʹóɳӲһ棬˽ѱƽ⣬ҵҲʼΪ
δ̻Ͷʵ׼ȫ꾭óɳ1.5%ҡ
    չ¹ãܵŷԪߵ͵Ӱ죬ڳɳ𽥻ָ⣬ڷ籩
ͣ1998˥6%ľ״ѱ1999Լ1.8%ĳɳ¹ͳ
ƾָ2000ĳڳɳʿɴ5%˽ѷ棬רԤɳƼ̬
̫ĸı䣬2000¹˰ϽЩ˰ʹôڵʵ
ӣ˽ѻ硣
    ˮ׼棬1999ϰԳʳȶͨŷļ۸
ڵ12.5%ʹˮƽƽȣָֻ0.4%
Ҫܵԭͼ۸Ӱ죬ʹɱҲָ֮
ķȽ1%ȫˮ׼ά0.5%ĵˮ׼2000¹ʵ
Դ˰ƣʹ͡͵֮ɱԤϽֱӰˮ׼
ԤΪ1%Ͷг棬ҵӵ1999°൱ԣʧҵ
4˴ΣʧҵΪ10.2%ݵ¹ͳƾ֮ƣ2000깤
250000ʧҵɽ370˴ΣʧҵΪ9.8%
    Ͷʲ֣ͳʾĿǰʵ֮Ͷʽ󣬴˲ǱʾԸ
ߣ೧̴ڹ̬ȡݵ飬ʱ׼µͶʣ
̬ȽǽΪ֮ʵ¹ͳƾԤڳڷĳɼת1999
°ҵ֮ͶѿʼʵУ1999֮豸Ͷʿɳɳ4.6%2000꣬
豸ͶʳɳԤ΢½3.9%2001𣬵¹豸֮۾ɼ
Ͷʼ⽫¹涨÷潫Ӱҵ֮ͶʾΪԣ2000ȫ
óɸԤΪ2.4%1999һ¥
    չ
    ŷеҪͬ1999ڣʹծռGDP
¡ص͵60%1999ϰٹ⾭ûѱʹھ˥ڵ˫Ӱ
죬ڽҽݽƶȸĸҲѣʹ븺ծĿ겻
ɡ
    ڵ۷棬1999ǰֱɳ2.0%2.0%2.1%10³ɳ1.8%
ˮ˹ͥƷࡢ̾۳ɳϸߣڵ
ɳʳࡢҽƱ۳ȣͨѶµڽ
Ʒ۸½ԼɳʹȶɶܶһԪŷԪ
ֵ1999ǰ7±ֵ13.2%ԤŷԪʹɶܻ115
ŷԪ0.5%ŷԪԪٴαֵ
    ˽֧ɳ1999һΪ4.8%4.5%̶ʱγɳɳʵһ
ڼҵ·ͻ豸ɹ£ﵽ6.4%ˮ׼ڶΪ4.
5%ܹʲӰ죬1999һڷֱɳ5.5%ɪ4.3%ڶΪ4.6%
ڵŷı85.3%Ϊ4.2%޹Ϊ6.2%ɳʷֱΪ1.4%8.5
%5.3%ǿԶɱֲ𽥳ָ
Ҳǿŷı66.4%Ϊ12.5%޹Ϊ18.9%ɳ
ʷֱΪ0.7%3.2%7.0%Զǵĵͼ۲Ʒڳɳࡣóɳ
1999һֱΪ3.1%3.1%
    WEFAԤ1999ͨʻ2.0%Ϊ2.2%ɶܶԪسΪ2.051ʧ
ҵʻ5.2%½4.6%ԤռGDPػ0.9%ծռGDP
ήΪ67.6%2000ԤֹԤռGDPؿɽ0.5%WEFAԤ
2000˶طֱΪ0.9%65.7%
    Ԥھҵʲ۸ת£1999˽ѳɳԤڻ
4.5%Ϊ4 .1%ά2.5%ɳʣѳɳԤ4.1%Ϊ3.8%Ԥ
ǿ̫˽ͶҲήΪ5.0%2.4%ͶʳɳҲ4.0%
Ϊ2.8%Ԥڹɳʻ19984.3%Ϊ3.1%Ԥŷ
ΪƵļۻȡߣ⽫ʹ¹֮ĳ
ڣԤֻɳ4.2%3.7%Ԥ1999꾭óɳʻ3.8%Ϊ2.9%

    WEFAԤ2000˽֧ɸʻٽΪ3.4%Ҳ2.0%
ѳɳʽΪ3.2%̶ʱγΪ˽ͶʷֱήΪ3.0%1.
9%ȫͶʳɳʻή2.1%ڴ£Ԥڹɳʻά3.1%
ˮ׼ԤڹʾϺãóɳŷԪƣʽ
ڳɳʷֱ΢4.3%4.2%徭óɳڹάֲ䣬
΢ɳ£Ԥھóɳʻ2.9%Ϊ3.1%
    չ
    1999Ԥŷִίͬ£GDP2.1%2.4%Դ̼
1999ǰ9µָ1.5%ͨѶ½ǡΪ
ͼм֧ºͨѹ
19997ʧҵ11.9%Ϊ11.5%ʧҵԤھóɳʲѡ
ŷԪ11µ£ծϢأʽЧƳʧҵ
Ĵʩ
    ֧ɳ1999һֱΪ1.9%1.5%ϰ˽
ѳɳʷֱΪ2.6%1.5%̶ʱγʵһֱΪ1.2%2.9%
ɳ1999һֱ-5.1%-2.3%ڳɳʳﱸһֱΪ0.04
%3.2%9£ŷó׳ɳ4.6%ԽϷŷҵ6.4%Ϊӷ
ŷҽڱ63%ɳΪ10.0%Ҳŷҵ7.1%Էŷҳڱ
62%ɳΪ3.0%Ҳŷҵ2.2%ɼڱ临ϻ磬
ŷҵıӡóɳܹǿӰ죬GDPɳ1999һ
ֱΪ0.8%0.8%
    WEFAԤ999ռGDPػԵ2.4%2000ԤԤҪü11
֧Ԥ000ռGDPػήΪ1.7%Ԥ1999½
ƽǷȻ1.8%Ϊ1.7%ʧҵʻ199812.3%12.1%
ŷԪǿʹһԪطΪ18031
    Ԥ1999˽ѳɳʷֱΪ1.3%ɪ1.8%ѳɳΪ1.7%Ԥ
ͶʳɳʻΪ3.6%˽ͶӶͶʼ١ͶԤڳɳ
½ʹԤڹɳ2.4%Ϊ1.7%°Ԥڻ
1999ڳɳʻƳ0.5%ڳӴ£Ԥ1999ڳ
ʿɴ2.3%19986.1%Ϊ͡Ԥ1999꾭óɳʻ΢Ϊ1.2%
    Ԥ2000˽֧ɳʻΪ2.2%彵Ϊ1.1%ѳ
Ϊ2.1%̶ʱγΪͶʻήΪ4.5%Լ˽Ͷʻ
Ϊ4.5%ڴӰ£Ԥڹɳʻ2.4%Ԥڹʾ
ãóɹƣԤŷԪ5.8%ʽڳɳ
Ԥֱ5.8%5.2%徭óɳڹԳɳ£
Ԥ2000꾭óɳʻ1.2%Ϊ2.3%

--
                Alchian ---- Hayek֮                     

 Դ:¹⻪վ bbs.fudan.edu.cn[FROM: 10.64.11.48]

 

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