People often ask me if we're nearing the end of the digital revolution -- if technology progress is at a point of diminishing returns and the personal computer has reached the apex of its development.
I believe the opposite is true. In many ways, the incredible advances of the past few decades have really just laid the foundation for much more profound change. In the years to come, hardware will continue to improve, often in dramatic and surprising ways. Software will continue to advance as we develop new approaches to take advantage of multicore processors, expanded data storage and more pervasive broadband access. Together, hardware and software will be the catalyst for advances during the next 10 years that will far exceed the changes of the last 30 years.
Soon computing and software will be available everywhere -- throughout the office and the home; in your car; and in stores, restaurants and public spaces. We'll access computing capabilities on a wide range of devices, often taking advantage of nearby displays and projection surfaces. Meanwhile, the proliferation of massive data centers and the increasing ubiquity of broadband networks will create a fabric of information and computing capabilities that extends seamlessly across our lives at work and at home, from any location.
This combination of powerful software running on devices, services running on the Web and huge amounts of storage available via the Internet will mean that all of your information will be instantly accessible to you. Soon, you'll be able to call up any documents or media files that you've created or saved, using any device that is at hand -- whether it's a PC, a mobile phone, a TV, a portable game player or a music device. Your preferences, contacts, calendars and applications will be seamlessly available, and the way information and features are presented will automatically adjust to deliver the best experience for the device you are using.
These changes will have a dramatic impact on business. New information technology tools are enabling companies of all sizes to streamline communications and collaboration, simplify day-to-day processes, and provide their employees with instant access to the information they need to make smart decisions. Even more important, we are closer than ever to realizing our vision for information systems that have the flexibility, intelligence and self-awareness to adapt automatically as business conditions change. These systems will deliver precisely the information, services and applications that employees and customers need, when and where they need them.
Technology is also increasingly changing the way people live -- the way we share experiences and communicate with the people we care about; the way we preserve memories of past events; the way we access entertainment; the way we learn; and how we utilize health care. Simply put, technology is transforming the way we interact with each other and understand the world we live in.
The ubiquity of software, devices and connectivity is providing a platform for rich and complex social communities that are central to the way we satisfy the universal desire for human interaction. The popularity of online services such as Xbox Live, Windows Live Spaces, Facebook and MySpace demonstrate the powerful appeal of technology that enables connections and community. (Xbox Live and Windows Live Spaces are owned by Microsoft, which holds a 1.6% stake in Facebook; MySpace is owned by News Corp., publisher of this newspaper.)
This transformation will pick up speed as the way we interact with technology evolves to resemble the way people interact with each other. Cheaper, more powerful computing has enabled researchers to solve difficult problems such as voice and handwriting recognition, and we're beginning to see the emergence of interfaces that incorporate speech, handwriting, vision, touch and gestures.
We'll also see rapid progress in display technology. During the next decade, screens will become cheaper, lighter, more portable and more pervasive. In the future, we'll link our portable devices to nearby displays or project information onto nearby surfaces. The combination of new input and output mechanisms will have a revolutionary impact, not only on how we interact with technology, but how we interact with each other.
When Paul Allen and I founded Microsoft more than 30 years ago, our dream was to put a computer on every desk and in every home. Today, about one billion people have a PC. That's a large number, but it's just a fraction of the world's 6.6 billion people. As we make technology more affordable and simpler to use, we will be able to extend the social and economic opportunities that come with better access to education, information, health care and global marketplaces. As more and more of the world's people participate in the knowledge economy, the result will be new innovations that make everyone's lives richer, more connected, more productive and more fulfilling.
I believe this will be the biggest change during the next 10 years -- the expansion of the digital revolution to people who aren't yet able to participate in the knowledge economy. For all the progress we've made, in many ways we've only begun to see the great potential of digital technology. I'm excited to see what the future will bring. (Bill Gates)
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经常有人问我数字革命是否已接近尾声，他们想知道科技带来的回报是不是越来越少，个人电脑的发展是否已达到顶峰。
我可不这么认为。在过去几十年中，许多领域都取得了令人难以置信的进步，这些恰恰给未来将发生的更为深刻的改变奠定了基础。在未来几年，硬件产品将不断升级，它们的变化往往既彻底又无从预料。同时人们将能找到新的办法利用多核处理器、海量存储以及宽带接入技术所带来的便利，开发出更理想的软件产品。未来 10年的进步会大大超越过去30年来的进步，而硬件和软件将充当这种进步的催化刘。
很快，信息技术和软件的身影就会随处可见──遍及你的办公室、居所、爱车，还有商店、餐馆和各类公共场所。借助周围的显示器和投影屏，我们将会在许多设备上接触信息技术。与此同时，大型数据中心的兴起和宽带网络的日渐普及也将造就一个信息和电脑应用网络，涵盖我们生活和工作的方方面面。
各种设备上运行的强大软件、网络上的各类服务，以及通过互联网获得的庞大存储空间，这一切合在一起，就意味着你所有的信息都可以即时获得。不用多久，你就可以利用手头的任何设备──无论是电脑、手机、电视机、掌上游戏机还是音乐播放器──调出你所创建和存储的任何文档或媒体文件。你的个人化设定、联系人、日历和应用程序都唾手可得，而信息和内容呈现的方式都会自动调整成最适合你所用设备的方式。
这些变化将对商业产生极大的影响。无论公司规模多大，都能借助新的信息技术工具来提高沟通与合作的效率、简化日常工作程序，并让员工即时获得需要的信息以作出明智的决断。更重要的是，我们比任何时候都更有可能实现我们对信息系统的期望：具备灵活性、智能性和自我意识，能根据商业环境的变化而自动作出调整。无论何时何地，这些系统都能精确地提供员工和客户需要的信息、服务和应用程序。
技术也日渐改变着人们的生活方式──我们如何与亲朋好友分享经历、互相交流；如何获得娱乐；我们的学习方式甚至寻医问药的方式。简而言之，科技正在影响我们彼此之间的互动，以及我们对自己所处的这个世界的看法。
软件、设备和连接性的普及为形形色色的社会群体提供了平台，而要实现人们想要互相交流的普遍愿望，那些社会群体至关重要。Xbox Live、Windows Live Spaces、Facebook和MySpace等网络服务的流行显示出，能让人们互相交流、组成群体的技术具备强大的吸引力。（Xbox Live和Windows Live Spaces都是微软旗下产品，后者还拥有Facebook的1.6%股份；MySpace是新闻集团(News Corp.)旗下品牌。）
我们与科技的互动方式越来越类似人与人之间的交流方式，因而，这种转变也会越来越快。成本更低、功能更强大的信息技术让研究人员得以解决诸如语音和手写识别等难题，而我们也开始看到整合语音、手写、视像、触觉和手势等多种元素的界面出现。
显示技术也将快速发展。未来10年，显示屏会更加廉价、轻巧、便携，也会更为普及。将来，我们会将自己的移动设备接入自己附近的显示设备，或是将信息投影在周围的平面上。新的输入和输出设备将协同一致，彻底改变我们与科技互动的方式以及我们彼此之间互相交流的方式。
30 多年前，保罗•艾伦(Paul Allen)和我创立微软之时，我们梦想着电脑能进入每家每户。如今，大约有10亿人拥有了电脑。这是个巨大的数字，但仍然只是全世界66亿人口中的一小部分。由于科技成本日趋低廉、其使用越来越简便，伴随教育、信息、医疗和全球市场的改善而来的社会和经济发展机遇也会扩大。随着全世界越来越多的人投身知识经济，将会出现新的创新技术，让所有人的生活更丰富、更融洽、更具效率，也更幸福。
我认为，这将是未来10年最大的变化──数字革命扩展到目前尚未能参与知识经济的人群。至于我们已经取得的所有成就，从很多方面来说我们只不过刚刚开始看到数字技术的巨大潜力。遥想未来，我不禁兴奋不已。（比尔·盖茨） 
