A four-year college degree, seen for generations as a ticket to a better life, is no longer enough to guarantee a steadily rising paycheck.
Just ask Bea Dewing. After she earned a bachelor's degree -- her second -- in computer science from Maryland's Frostburg State University in 1986, she enjoyed almost unbroken advances in wages, eventually earning $89,000 a year as a data modeler for Sprint Corp. in Lawrence, Kan. Then, in 2002, Sprint laid her off.
'I thought I might be looking a few weeks or months at the most,' says Ms. Dewing, now 56 years old. Instead she spent the next six years in a career wilderness, starting an Internet cafe that didn't succeed, working temporary jobs and low-end positions in data processing, and fruitlessly responding to hundreds of job postings.
The low point came around 2004 when a recruiter for Sprint -- now known as Sprint Nextel Corp. -- called seeking to fill a job similar to the one she lost two years earlier, but paying barely a third of her old salary.
In April, Ms. Dewing finally landed a job similar to her old one in the information technology department of Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s headquarters in Bentonville, Ark., where she relocated. She earns about 20% less than she did in 2002, adjusted for inflation, but considers herself fortunate, and wiser.
A degree, she says, 'isn't any big guarantee of employment, it's a basic requirement, a step you have to take to even be considered for many professional jobs.'
For decades, the typical college graduate's wage rose well above inflation. But no longer. In the economic expansion that began in 2001 and now appears to be ending, the inflation-adjusted wages of the majority of U.S. workers didn't grow, even among those who went to college. The government's statistical snapshots show the typical weekly salary of a worker with a bachelor's degree, adjusted for inflation, didn't rise last year from 2006 and was 1.7% below the 2001 level.
College-educated workers are more plentiful, more commoditized and more subject to the downsizings that used to be the purview of blue-collar workers only. What employers want from workers nowadays is more narrow, more abstract and less easily learned in college.
To be sure, the average American with a college diploma still earns about 75% more than a worker with a high-school diploma and is less likely to be unemployed. Yet while that so-called college premium is up from 40% in 1979, it is little changed from 2001, according to data compiled by Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal Washington think tank.
Most statistics he and other economists use don't track individual workers over time, but compare annual snapshots of the work force. That said, this trend doesn't appear due to an influx of lower-paid young workers or falling starting salaries; Mr. Bernstein says when differences in age, race, marital status and place of residence are accounted for, the trend remains the same.
A variety of economic forces are at work here. Globalization and technology have altered the types of skills that earn workers a premium wage; in many cases, those skills aren't learned in college classrooms. And compared with previous generations, today's college graduates are far more likely to be competing against educated immigrants and educated workers employed overseas.
The issue isn't a lack of economic growth, which was solid for most of the 2000s. Rather, it's that the fruits of growth are flowing largely to 'a relatively small group of people who have a particular set of skills and assets that lots of other people don't,' says Mr. Bernstein. And that 'doesn't necessarily have that much to do with your education.' In short, a college degree is often necessary, but not sufficient, to get a paycheck that beats inflation.
Economists chiefly cite globalization and technology, which have prompted employers to put the highest value on abstract skills possessed by a relatively small group, for this state of affairs. Harvard University economists Lawrence Katz and Claudia Goldin argue that in the 1990s, it became easier for firms to do overseas, or with computers at home, the work once done by 'lower-end college graduates in middle management and certain professional positions.' This depressed these workers' wages, but made college graduates whose work was more abstract and creative more productive, driving their salaries up.
Indeed, salaries have seen extraordinary growth among a small number of highly paid individuals in the financial sector -- such as fund management, investment banking and corporate law -- which, until the credit crisis hit a year ago, had benefited both from the buoyant financial environment and the globalization of finance, in which the U.S. remains a leader.
Richard Spitzer is one of those beneficiaries. He received his undergraduate degree in East Asian studies in 1995 from the College of William and Mary and graduated from Georgetown University's law school in 2001. The New York firm for which he works, now called Dewey & LeBoeuf, has a specialty in complex legal work for insurance companies. There, Mr. Spitzer has developed an expertise in 'catastrophe bonds.' An insurance company sells such bonds to investors and pays them interest, unless an earthquake, a hurricane or unexpected surge in deaths occurs.
Experts in these bonds are 'probably a rarefied species -- there's only a few law firms that do them,' says Mr. Spitzer, 35 years old. He typically spends two to four months on a single deal, ensuring that details like timing of payments or definition of the triggering event are precise enough to avoid disputes or default.
Mr. Spitzer's salary has doubled to $265,000 since joining in 2001, in line with salaries similar firms pay.
But not all law graduates are so fortunate; many, especially those from less-prestigious schools, have far lower salaries and less job security. Similarly, some computer-science graduates strike it rich. But their skills are not as rare as they were in the early 1980s, when the discipline took off, and graduates today must contend with competition from hundreds of thousands of similarly qualified foreign workers in the U.S. or overseas.
That helps explain Ms. Dewing's experience. She was raised in a family that prized education. Both her parents went to college on the G.I. Bill, which pays tuition costs for servicemen and some dependents. Four of their six children earned college degrees. In 1979, she earned a bachelor's degree in government and politics from George Mason University in Virginia. Several years later, then a single mother, she decided to get a degree in computer science.
Her first job out of college was with the federal government, earning about $35,000 in today's dollars. 'For 16 years I had no trouble at all finding jobs,' she said. Earlier this decade she ended up at Sprint designing databases -- a specialty called 'data modeling' that isn't widely taught in schools and usually requires hands-on experience.
In 2002 Sprint, reeling from the collapse of the telecommunications industry, initiated a wave of layoffs that eventually totaled 15,000 workers in 13 months, Ms. Dewing among them. She remained in the Kansas City area, posting her resume on job boards. When recruiters called, she would usually put her expected salary at something close to her old salary. As time went by without an offer she lowered it steadily, to $60,000. She found herself competing for jobs with employees of outsourcing firms brought over from India on temporary visas, such as the H-1B.
A few months ago, Ms. Dewing got a call from a recruiter calling on behalf of Wal-Mart. Company officials pressed her during her interview on how she had kept up her data-modeling ability during her six years away from the specialty. She noted that while at Sprint she had revived the Kansas City chapter of a data modelers' professional association and, long after being laid off, continued to attend its seminars where invited experts would describe the latest advances. She even cited her short-lived Internet cafe as evidence of how she could solve diverse problems.
When she landed the job, she says, 'I felt, 'All right, I'm a professional again.'' Even so, Ms. Dewing has a newfound appreciation for how insecure any job can be and how little a college degree by itself stands for. 'There is enough competition for entry-level positions that employers are going to ask, 'What else have you done in your life besides go to college?'' she says. 'And in information technology, a portfolio of hands-on experience with programming is a really good thing to have.'
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四年制本科学位在多少代人的眼中都被看做是通往美好生活的门票，而现在，它已不再能保证薪水的稳定增长了。
问问贝亚&#149;杜因(Bea Dewing)就知道了。1986年获得马里兰州Frostburg State University的计算机科学学士学位──这是她第二个学士学位──之后，她几乎不间断地享受加薪，最终在堪萨斯州的斯普林特公司(Sprint Corp.)担任数据建模员，年薪89,000美元。然后，2002年，斯普林特解雇了她。
56岁的杜因说，她觉得自己最多只要几周或几个月时间就能找到工作。但恰恰相反，接下来的六年中她在求职道路上处处碰壁；她开了一间网吧，但是没能成功，干过一些数据处理方面的临时工作和低级职位，也曾经回复过数百个职位招聘广告，但都无功而返。
最低潮的时候是在2004年左右，斯普林特──现在的Sprint Nextel Corp.──的一个招聘人员打来电话，职位与她两年前失去的工作类似，但薪水只有她原先的三分之一。
今年4月，杜因终于在阿肯色州本顿维尔的沃尔玛连锁公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)总部的信息技术部门找到了一份与老本行差不多的工作。她也因此搬到了本顿维尔。她现在的薪水经通胀因素调整后比2002年的薪水低了20%左右，但她认为自己很幸运，也更明智了。
她说，学历绝不是就业的重大保证，它是种基本要求，没有它，你根本就不会被许多专业职位纳入考虑范围。
<span id=NewAd></span>多年来，大学毕业生的薪水上涨通常远高于通胀率。但如今已好景不再。在始于2001年&#12289;现在似乎正在终结的经济扩张时期，大部分美国劳动者的薪水经通胀因素调整后都没有增长，甚至连拥有本科学历的人也是如此。政府的粗略统计表明，经通胀因素调整后，拥有学士学位的劳动者周薪去年较2006年没有上涨，比2001年的水平更是下降了1.7%。
受过大学教育的劳动者为数更多&#12289;更为商品化，也更容易遭受曾经仅限于蓝领工人的公司裁员的影响。如今，雇主想从员工身上得到的东西更专&#12289;更抽象&#12289;也更难在大学里学到。
当然，拥有大学文凭的美国人的薪水仍然比仅有高中学历者高出75%左右，失业的可能性也比后者低。然而，据经济政策研究所(Economic Policy Institute)的贾里德&#149;伯恩斯坦(Jared Berstein)搜集的数据，虽然这种所谓的“学历薪资优势”比1979年时的40%有所上升，但自2001年以来几乎没有变化。
伯恩斯坦和其他经济学家们使用的大部分统计数据都没有长时间对单个劳动者进行跟踪，而是对所有职工的年度总体情况进行对比。这样一来，这种趋势似乎就不应归因于低薪年轻职员的流入或是起薪的下降；伯恩斯坦说，考虑到年龄&#12289;种族&#12289;婚姻状况和居住地等因素时，趋势还是一样的。
这里有多种经济因素的作用。全球化和科技发展已令能让劳动者获得高薪的技术种类发生了改变；在许多情况下，这些技能都无法在大学课堂里学到。与前人相比，如今的大学毕业生更有可能要跟教育程度较高的移民以及海外职员竞争。
问题并不在于经济增长不足，本世纪大多数时候经济都十分强劲。伯恩斯坦说，问题更多地在于大部分经济增长的成果都流入了一小部分人手中，因为他们拥有许多人所不具备的特定技能和资产，而这一点并不一定与你的教育背景有很大关系。简而言之，想要让薪资增长跑赢通胀，拥有大学学历通常是必要的，但是还不够。
对于这种情况，经济学家们首先将原因归结为全球化和科技发展，这些因素促使雇主非常看重那些为少数人所掌握的深奥技能。哈佛大学经济学家劳伦斯&#149;卡茨(Lawrence Katz)和克劳迪亚&#149;戈尔丁(Claudia Goldin)认为，上世纪90年代，在中层管理及某些专业职位上曾经由大学毕业生做的工作可以更容易地在海外或是在家以电脑完成。这种情况压低了这些职员的薪水，但工作内容更为抽象&#12289;更具创造性的大学毕业生的薪水却水涨船高。
事实上，在金融领域中从事基金管理&#12289;投资银行及公司法等相关业务的小部分高薪人士的薪资水平涨势惊人，因为直到一年前信贷危机爆发时，金融环境以及由美国领军的金融全球化还都算得上是形势一片大好。
理查德&#149;斯皮策(Richard Spitzer)就是上述受益者之一。1995年，他获得了威廉玛丽学院(College of William and Mary)的东亚研究专业本科学位，2001年又从乔治城大学(Georgetown University)法学院毕业。他所供职的纽约公司现在名为Dewey & LeBoeuf，专门为保险公司处理复杂的法律事务。在这家公司，斯皮策专攻“灾难债券”。保险公司将这类债券销售给投资者并给付利息，除非发生地震&#12289;飓风等意外灾难造成严重人员伤亡。
35岁的斯皮策说，精通此类证券的专家可能算是稀有物种了，为其提供法律服务的公司也是寥寥无几。他通常会在一桩交易上花两个月到四个月的时间，确保给付时机或触发事件定义等细节之处足够精准，以免日后出现纠纷或违约。
自2001年加入公司以来，斯皮策的薪水已经翻了一倍，达到26.5万美元，与同类公司的薪资水平一致。
但并非所有大学生都能这么幸运；许多人的薪水和工作安全系数要低得多，非名校出身的人尤其如此。同样，虽然一些计算机科学专业毕业的大学生也很走运，但他们的技能已不再像20世纪80年代早期该学科方兴未艾时那般稀缺了。如今的大学毕业生必须要和在美国或海外工作的数万名同样资质过硬的外籍劳动者展开竞争。
这一点有助于解释杜因的经历。她在一个重视教育的家庭里长大。她父母都是在《退伍军人权利法案》(G.I. Bill)的帮助下上的大学，该法案为军人及部分家属提供学费。他们的六个孩子中有四个都拥有大学学历。1979年，杜因获得了弗吉尼亚州乔治梅森大学(George Mason University)的政府与政治专业学士学位。几年后，已成为了单身母亲的杜因决定攻读计算机科学方面的学位。
她大学毕业后先是在联邦政府工作，薪水相当于现在的35,000美元。她说，有16年的时间里她找工作根本就不成问题。本世纪初，她最终进入斯普林特，从事数据库设计──这一名为“数据建模”的专业在学校课程设置中不太常见，它往往需要实际经验。
2002年，因电信行业崩溃而举步维艰的斯普林特出现裁员浪潮，最终在13个月里裁掉了15,000名员工，杜因也是其中之一。她留在堪萨斯城，在网络招聘版块中发布简历。招聘人员打来电话时，她通常会将期望薪资定在跟原先差不多的水平。随着时间流逝，一张聘书都没有收到的杜因将期望薪水一降再降，最终到了60,000美元。她发现自己在跟外包公司招来的印度籍员工竞争职位，后者所持有的往往是H-1B这样的临时工作签证。
就在几个月前，杜因接到了沃尔玛招聘人员的电话。在面试中，考官在她远离专业6年后如何保持自己的数据建模技能的问题上步步紧逼。她解释说，在斯普林特时，她重新开办了一个数据建模员专业协会在堪萨斯城的分会，而在被解雇之后的很长时间里，她还继续参加相关的研讨会，受邀专家会交流这项技术的最新进展。她甚至还把自己那间“短命”的网吧也搬了出来，说明自己有能力解决各种各样的问题。
杜因说，得到那份工作时，她觉得自己好歹又重归专业圈了。虽然如此，杜恩还是深切地体会到，任何职位都可能不够牢靠，而且大学学历本身也实在说明不了什么。她说，初级职位的竞争十分激烈，雇主会问：“除了上大学，你还干过什么？”而在信息技术行业，拥有程序设计方面的多种实际经验确实是好事。
