Just weeks ago the fragile commodities markets could be sparked ahead by a mere hint of bad news. That market psychology has reversed, with Monday's action showing that even war can't halt oil's current retreat.
Inside the commodity-trading pits and brokerage houses, the conversation isn't whether prices are pulling back in the near term, but how far and for how long.
That was made clear as markets digested increasingly violent images of conflict between Russia and the oil crossroads of Georgia. Oil prices fell to as low as $112.72 a barrel before settling at $114.45 a barrel, down 75 cents, for the September delivery contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Until a few weeks ago, even fears of geopolitical conflict tended to push up prices. In early June, for example, oil jumped more than $10 when, among other things, an Israeli official warned that Iran would face attack if it pursues a nuclear-weapons program.
Now, the market's deepening losses reflect how rapidly pessimism has mounted about European and Japanese economic contractions knocking out raw-materials demand. Traders also fear that as these economies weaken, the dollar's new strength will push down prices of commodities denominated in dollars.
Since June 30, oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange has fallen 18%, and natural gas has sunk 37%, to $8.349 a million British thermal units.
The pullback has spread to other commodities as well. Since the June quarter-end, gold is off more than 11%, and several industrial metals also have tanked. Agriculture has pulled way back, with a 31% drop for corn, a 24% drop for soybeans and a 5.9% drop for wheat.
Many market watchers expect the basics of supply and demand to build in a pricing floor well above where commodities traded a year ago. Then, oil was still in the $70-per-barrel range, gold was $670 an ounce compared with Monday's $821.50 and corn was at $3.33 a bushel compared with $4.97 Monday. Market players see the likelihood of upward spurts in the future.
But the recent and sharp declines suggest that some of the circumstances that helped push prices to unheard-of heights earlier this year have moderated.
Thursday, a day before oil staged one of its biggest drops in weeks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts declared a buying opportunity. They argued that unforeseen climbs in oil and crop prices earlier this summer had triggered 'temporary' demand weakness that could bounce back as prices drift to a more acceptable equilibrium. In the oil markets, despite weak U.S. demand, inventories remain at 'critically low levels,' indicating that any supplies made available by weakness in U.S. demand 'are being consumed by emerging economies.'
Corn and soybean inventories are also apt to be low going into next year, providing 'substantial upside' from current prices, they contend.
They forecast $145.30 crude three months from now, and $147 oil a year from now.
The prominent commodities bull, investor Jim Rogers, in an interview insists he isn't losing faith.
'I've been hearing the commodities bubble is dead for seven years,' he says. 'Maybe it will end, but I don't think it will be for another' several years, he says. The market is simply consolidating, he says. He points out that investors wrote off gold because it reversed a climb upward in the 1970s for two years. But then it went on to much greater heights.
Today's bull market in oil started in 1999, Mr. Rogers says, and has had several significant pullbacks since then, 'which scared the socks off the bulls.'
Within major banks, there is disagreement about the sustainability of commodities prices. Analysts at Deutsche Bank AG's global macro strategy group declared July 31 that oil was set to fall from its peak to $100 a barrel in the first quarter of 2009 and to $85 by early 2010.
Yet the bank's commodities specialists expect to see $135 again sometime in the third quarter and say falling inventories in the U.S. Midwest indicate that fundamentals are 'tightening and may herald a stabilisation in the oil price.'
Bank of Montreal global portfolio strategist Donald Coxe wrote last week that when 'anguished clients' ask whether the commodities bull run is over, he says 'definitely not.'
Yet that same week, a BMO senior economist, Sal Guatieri, declared the commodities boom 'over.' BMO says Mr. Guatieri was referring to a moderation in prices, not a collapse.
Some short-term dynamics help the bearish case. So-called noncommercial oil traders, which include players such as hedge funds, have been reversing once-bullish bets. Independent energy-market analyst Stephen Schork pointed out Monday that as of Aug. 5, according to regulatory data, noncommercial traders moved to their largest bearish view in oil futures since February 2007.
The credit crunch has made it harder for such traders to nurse bullish commodity futures bets as the market has turned, because of the collateral, or margin, traders must post to stay in the game. What's more, many are bailing out of positions as Congress debates a legislative overhaul of commodity markets that could reduce the size of bets speculators can make.
Meanwhile, markets have grown jittery in the face of rumors that large traders were liquidating holdings in the volatile energy markets, especially after the July bankruptcy filing of a large oil trader, SemGroup LP, which has confirmed that it exited big oil-futures positions in July.
Citigroup analyst Tim Evans, who has repeatedly argued that oil was overpriced, said Monday that the momentum had swung to the bears. 'The petroleum markets are considering a swing back to the upside, but seem to be having difficulty fighting off the ongoing flow of selling.'
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就在几周前，哪怕一丁点坏消息的风声都会让脆弱不堪的大宗商品市场出现价格飞涨。而今，投资者的心理已经来了个180度大转弯，周一的动向表明，就算是战争也难以阻止油价的跌势。
不论是在商品交易所还是在经纪行，人们当前谈论的话题都不是油价是否会在近期回撤，而是此番跌势将有多猛&#12289;持续时间将有多长。
这一点显而易见──只要看一看市场对俄罗斯和格鲁吉亚（输油管道经过地）冲突升级的消息怎样的处之泰然。周一，纽约商交所九月轻质低硫原油期货结算价下跌75美分，至每桶114.45美元，盘中一度触及每桶112.72美元的低位。
就在几周前，就算是对地缘政治冲突的恐慌也能把价格抬高。举例来说，6月初时，只消一条有关以色列官员警告伊朗若坚持核计划将有可能遭受打击的消息就让油价上窜了十多美元。
而今，从油价的深幅跳水中可以看出，市场对欧洲&#12289;日本经济放缓将削减原材料需求的悲观情绪正在快速蔓延。交易员也担心随着这些经济体增长疲软，美元的再度走强将压低以美元计价的大宗商品的价格。
自6月30日以来，纽约商交所原油期货价格累计重挫了18%，天然气价格则暴跌37%，降至8.349美元/百万英国热量单位。
其他大宗商品也遭受了池鱼之殃。自6月底以来，黄金期货价格已下跌逾11%，部分工业用金属价格也出现下滑。农产品价格也降了下来，玉米&#12289;黄豆以及小麦价格分别下跌了31%&#12289;24%和5.9%。
许多市场观察人士都认为，供需基本面因素会为油价在远远高于去年同期的水平上构筑底部。当时油价还处在每桶70美元区间，金价每盎司670美元（本周一金价报821.50美元），当时玉米价格为每蒲式耳3.33美元（本周一时报4.97美元）。市场人士认为，未来价格飞涨的可能性不能说不存在。
但近期大宗商品价格的重挫表明，那些在今年早些时候推动商品价格升至前所未有高点的外部因素已经没有那么大能量了。
上周四，即油价创出数周最大跌幅的前一天，高盛(Goldman Sachs Group)分析师表示，当前正是买进时机。他们认为，今夏早些时候油价及玉米价格出现的从未有过的迅猛涨势导致需求出现“暂时”疲软，随着价格回落至较适宜的水平，消费需求会出现回升。就石油市场而言，虽然美国的需求量走软，但库存水平仍然非常低；表明美国需求疲软所带来的任何供应余量都会被新兴经济体吸纳。
高盛分析师认为，直到明年玉米和黄豆库存仍将保持在低位，从而使价格较目前具备相当的上升势头。
他们预测，三个月后原油价格将升至145.30美元，一年后将达到147美元。
大宗商品的著名多头投资家吉姆&#149;罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)在一次采访中表示，他没有丧失信心。
他说，我听他们说商品泡沫破灭已经听了7年了。或许商品泡沫是会破灭，但我认为不会也持续7年。他说，市场只是在调整。他指出，七十年代黄金价格也有两年的时间掉头向下，当时投资者纷纷抛售黄金，但后来金价反而升到了更高的水平。
罗杰斯说，油价的这波牛市行情始于1999年，那之后曾出现多次回撤，“吓跑了很多多头人士”。
各大银行在大宗商品价格持稳问题上各持不同看法。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)全球宏观策略部门分析师7月31日表示，2009年第一季度，油价会从峰值回落到每桶100美元的价位，到2010年会进一步降至85美元。
而该行大宗商品部门专业人士当时预计，第三季度某个时段油价将回落到135美元，他们还说，美国中西部库存减少表明，基本面因素正在吃紧，或预示着油价将趋稳。
蒙特利尔银行(Bank of Montreal)全球投资部策略师唐纳德&#149;考克斯(Donald Coxe)上周写到，当有沮丧的客户问他大宗商品的牛市行情是否已结束时，他回答说：肯定还没有。
不过，同样在上周，蒙特利尔银行资深经济学家萨尔&#149;瓜提瑞(Sal Guatieri)指出，大宗商品热潮“已告结束”。该行表示，瓜提瑞只认为商品价格将出现回调，而不会暴跌。
一些短期动量因素也站在看跌派一边。所谓的非商业性石油交易商（比如对冲基金等投资者）已改变了一度看涨油价的投资策略。独立能源市场分析师斯蒂芬&#149;肖克(Stephen Schork)周一指出，根据监管机构的数据，截至8月5日，非商业性交易商在石油期货交易中的看跌头寸达到了2007年2月以来的最高水平。
随着市场转向，信贷危机加大了此类交易方守住大宗商品看涨头寸的难度，因为交易方参与交易要缴付一定的保证金。而且，随着国会讨论立法审查大宗商品市场，可能削减投机商的头寸规模，因此许多人纷纷解除头寸。
与此同时，关于大型交易商结清头寸离场的传言已经让市场变得惶恐不安，大型石油交易商SemGroup LP 7月份提交破产申请更加剧了这种气氛。该公司证实其7月份已清空石油期货头寸。
多次指出油价被高估的花旗集团分析师蒂姆&#149;埃文斯(Tim Evans)周一表示，市场动能现在已转向空头。他说：石油市场正在考虑重回上升轨道，但它似乎难以抵抗目前的抛售动能。
